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Saturday, October 14, 2017

 

Geomagnetic warning and Aurora Watch (14 October)

The SWS has issued a geomagnetic warning and aurora watch for 14 October (UT) due to expected arrival of a solar wind stream from a coronal hole. This is expected to arrive early in the UT day on the 14th (which is the evening of the 14th Australian time).  The SWS predicts active to minor storm conditions. The Space Weather Prediction Service has Predicted a G1 storm on the early evening of 14 October  and there was a minor geomagnetic storm in the daylight hours earlier.

If these geomagnetic events occur and result in aurora they could be seen from Tasmania weather permitting. The Moon is past last quarter and will not significantly interfere with aurora. Be patient, as the activity may rise and fall of the magnetic polarity of the wind may fluctuate significantly.

This event is unlikely to be as spectacular as those in September, but still worth a look.

Dark sky sites have the best chance of seeing anything, and always allow around 5 minutes for your eyes to become dark adapted.

As always look to the south for shifting red/green glows, beams have been reported consistently over the last few aurora, as well as bright proton arcs and "picket fences". A double arc,  blobs, and curtains were seen in Septembers aurora despite the moonlight.

Here is the near-real time satellite view of the clouds http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Cloud cover predictions can be found at SkippySky.  

A new aurora camera is being installed at Campania, Tasmania. A live feed of the images from this camera is  sill not available.

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 17/51
ISSUED AT 2319UT/13 OCTOBER 2017
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

The previous geomagnetic warning is extended for one more day.
The high speed streams associated with a recurrent positive polarity
Northern hemisphere coronal hole is expected to persist for a
few days. If the Bz component of the IMF turned strongly southward
for prolonged periods, earth could experience Minor Storm conditions
13 October.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FOR 14 OCTOBER 2017
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
14 Oct:  Active to Minor Storm

_____________________________________________________________
SUBJ: SWS AURORA WATCH
ISSUED AT 0031 UT ON 14 Oct 2017 by Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

Due the current elevated solar wind streams associated with a
recurrent a coronal hole, expect geomagnetic storming to continue over
the next 24 hours with a chance of visible auroras during local
nighttime hours from southernmost Australian regions.


Our Aurora forecasting tool, located at
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora/3/1, may help to estimate regions
from where aurora would be visible.

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